Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.435090 1.497847 1.562912 1.635612 1.714827 1.798811 1.894961
2026-02-08 1.349488 1.432221 1.520750 1.623126 1.739031 1.867130 2.020768
2026-02-15 1.285368 1.380806 1.485331 1.609385 1.754076 1.919429 2.125601
2026-02-22 1.244451 1.350599 1.469180 1.613138 1.785569 1.988762 2.251625
2026-03-01 1.190014 1.301035 1.426850 1.582156 1.771930 2.000896 2.305858
2026-03-08 1.147988 1.263248 1.395544 1.561318 1.767622 2.022073 2.370558
2026-03-15 1.114792 1.233969 1.372364 1.548209 1.770840 2.051277 2.445993
2026-03-22 1.102090 1.228104 1.376401 1.567886 1.815270 2.134870 2.600096
2026-03-29 1.094380 1.227540 1.386320 1.594671 1.869442 2.233877 2.783823
2026-04-05 1.072035 1.208072 1.371806 1.589165 1.880159 2.273744 2.884269
2026-04-12 1.053417 1.192408 1.361219 1.587869 1.895847 2.320685 2.998632
2026-04-19 1.023478 1.161700 1.330514 1.558767 1.871828 2.309110 3.019843
2026-04-26 1.003248 1.143074 1.315175 1.550176 1.876770 2.341193 3.116525
2026-05-03 0.983550 1.124488 1.299181 1.539882 1.878495 2.368161 3.206879
2026-05-10 0.964334 1.105936 1.282570 1.527950 1.877034 2.389794 3.289756
2026-05-17 0.952783 1.096756 1.277728 1.531650 1.897884 2.446403 3.439486
2026-05-24 0.928972 1.071216 1.250660 1.503632 1.870899 2.426169 3.446987
2026-05-31 0.909911 1.051392 1.230635 1.484738 1.856543 2.425058 3.489887
2026-06-07 0.894487 1.035933 1.215982 1.472832 1.851987 2.439251 3.563196
2026-06-14 0.891360 1.036358 1.222439 1.490787 1.893074 2.530559 3.799461
2026-06-21 0.890779 1.040027 1.233245 1.515184 1.945070 2.643950 4.099869
2026-06-28 0.879438 1.029188 1.224009 1.510181 1.950765 2.677752 4.233999
2026-07-05 0.869953 1.020594 1.217590 1.509005 1.962330 2.722465 4.399507